Access and meaningful participation of non-state actors in the UNFCCC process: path-dependencies in the era of ‘mega-COPs’

The Conferences of the Parties (COPs) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) have transformed into ‘global mega events’, attracting unparalleled levels of non-state actor (NSA) participation. At the same time, feelings of frustration among large swathes of NSAs seem to be on the rise regarding their participation in the process, which risks undermining the UNFCCC’s legitimacy and effectiveness. This paper argues that a trade-off exists between the quantity and quality of NSA engagement, focusing on a lack of <i>meaningful participation</i> as opposed to simply gaining <i>access</i>. It seeks to understand how the UNFCCC process and NSAs’ expectations of it have evolved over time (1997-2024), and to explain a material and perceived lack of meaningful participation for NSAs in the post-Paris era of ‘mega-COPs’. It argues that path-dependent dynamics are driving the rise of mega-COPs, whose sheer mass exert a ‘gravitational force’ that attracts new participants to the process. The competition for engagement opportunities that this creates leads to a material reduction in the quality of participation and prevents new NSAs from developing the necessary capacity to participate meaningfully and maintain a steady presence at the COPs. This, in turn, widens the gap between certain NSAs’ expectations for their participation at the COP and the realities of the intergovernmental process. When inaccurate representations of the legitimate role of NSAs are further reproduced, e.g. through social media, this expectation gap is reinforced, leading to a perceived lack of meaningful participation. <b>Key policy insights</b>High levels of participation create competition between NSAs for a limited amount of engagement opportunities with Party negotiators and undermine the overall quality of participation: for more meaningful NSA engagement, COPs need to downsize.The best opportunity for downsizing the COPs is to apply pressure on Parties to limit or remove the little-understood and now-redundant category of ‘Party overflow’ badges, of which 23,774 were issued at COP28.Capacity-building initiatives should better manage the expectations of new NSAs joining the process and to enhance their ability to meaningfully participate.In particular, the myth around the power of in-person participation needs busting and virtual participation promoted as an alternative. High levels of participation create competition between NSAs for a limited amount of engagement opportunities with Party negotiators and undermine the overall quality of participation: for more meaningful NSA engagement, COPs need to downsize. The best opportunity for downsizing the COPs is to apply pressure on Parties to limit or remove the little-understood and now-redundant category of ‘Party overflow’ badges, of which 23,774 were issued at COP28. Capacity-building initiatives should better manage the expectations of new NSAs joining the process and to enhance their ability to meaningfully participate. In particular, the myth around the power of in-person participation needs busting and virtual participation promoted as an alternative.