Replication data for: Freezing One Front? Bilateral Ceasefires and the Composition of Armed Violence under Colombia's "Total Peace," 2018–2025

Replication package for the Research Article "Freezing One Front? Bilateral Ceasefires and the Composition of Armed Violence under Colombia's 'Total Peace,' 2018–2025" (A. A. Merlet Echavarría, 2026). The package contains an actor × department × month panel of six Colombian armed groups (ELN, Estado Mayor Central, Estado Mayor de Bloques y Frente, Segunda Marquetalia, Autodefensas Gaitanistas de Colombia and Autodefensas Conquistadoras de la Sierra Nevada) across 31 departments, January 2018 – June 2026. It records monthly counts and best-estimate fatalities of state-based, non-state and one-sided violence, together with ceasefire exposure coded day by day from fourteen Colombian presidential decrees (2022–2025) that ordered, extended, suspended or ended bilateral ceasefires under the "Total Peace" policy. Contents:- data/: Colombian subsets of UCDP GED v26.1 and UCDP Candidate v26.01.26.06 (unmodified); event-to-actor assignment file; ceasefire calendar; analysis panel (8,394 observations; main sample 2018–2025: 7,860).- code/: Python scripts that build the panel from the original UCDP files and reproduce all tables and figures (Poisson pseudo-maximum-likelihood estimates with high-dimensional fixed effects, pyfixest 0.60.0).- output/: result tables (CSV) and figures (PNG) exactly as reported in the article.- README.md: codebook, variable definitions and replication instructions. Main finding: ceasefire exposure is associated with an 86–94% reduction in state-based violence involving the covered group, with no evidence of displacement into inter-group fighting and imprecise effects on violence against civilians. Running the scripts in a clean directory reproduces the panel and all estimates exactly. Sources and attribution: UCDP data are used under CC BY 4.0. Please cite Davies, Pettersson & Öberg (2026), Journal of Peace Research, https://doi.org/10.1093/jopres/xjag046; Sundberg & Melander (2013), Journal of Peace Research 50(4); and Hegre, Croicu, Eck & Högbladh (2020), Research & Politics. AI use declaration: code drafting, data processing and verification of decree dates and bibliographic records were assisted by Claude (Anthropic). All results are produced by the executable scripts included in this package, and all research decisions were made and reviewed by the author.