Resourcing the Fairytale Country with Wind Power: A Dynamic Material Flow Analysis

Wind
energy is key to addressing the global climate challenge,
but its development is subject to potential constraints of finite
primary materials. Prior studies on material demand forecasting of
wind power development are often limited to a few materials and with
low technological resolution, thus hindering a comprehensive understanding
of the impact of microengineering parameters on the resource implications
of wind energy. In this study, we developed a component-by-component
and stock-driven prospective material flow analysis model and used
bottom-up data on engineering parameters and wind power capacities
to characterize the materials demand and secondary supply potentials
of wind energy development in Denmark, a pioneering and leading country
in wind power. We also explicitly addressed the uncertainties in the
prospective modeling by the means of statistical estimation and sensitivity
analysis methods. Our results reveal increasing challenges of materials
provision and end-of-life (EoL) management in Denmark’s ambitious
transition toward 100% renewable energy in the next decades. Harnessing
potential secondary resource supply from EoL and extending lifetime
could curtail the primary material demand, but they could not fully
alleviate the material supply risk. Such a model framework that considers
bottom-up engineering parameters with increased precision could be
applied to other emerging technologies and help reveal synergies and
trade-offs of relevant resource, energy, and climate strategies in
the future renewable energy and climate transition.