The dynamics of Kelp Forests in the Northeast Pacific Ocean and the relationship with environmental drivers

1.The dynamics of foundation species in ecosystems are key to the fate of many species. Kelp forests are foundation species in temperate ocean ecosystems and contribute to carbon storage, macronutrient dynamics, primary production, and biodiversity of myriad associated species. Downward trends in their abundance globally have been of concern.

2.We analyzed 26 years of aerial censuses (1989-2015) of 2 canopy kelp species in Washington State (USA) waters. We compared these modern censuses with censuses in 1911 and 1912 to determine the persistence of kelp cover over the past century. Using Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models, we compared kelp dynamics with likely environmental drivers, including local environmental variables and ocean indices for this region.

3.Kelp remains at historic levels in many areas, though some eastern populations in proximity to greater human populations are the exception to this pattern. Over the last 26 years, kelp abundance showed hi...