Prediction and analysis of energy consumption and carbon emissions in a liquor industrial park under the Dual Carbon Vision

As an energy-intensive industry， the liquor industry's carbon emissions reduction path is of considerable importance for achieving the Double Carbon Goals. This paper took the liquor industrial park in Xinghuacun Economic Development Zone， Fenyang， Shanxi Province as the research object， adopted the analysis and prediction model combining top-down and bottom-up， took overall consideration of economic development and energy demand， and set three scenarios： trend as usual scenario， low-carbon scenario and strong low-carbon scenario， and forecasted the energy consumption and carbon emissions of the economic development zone from 2020 to 2035. The result showed that in 2020， the total energy consumption of the park was equivalent to approximately 134，000 tons of standard coal， with a total carbon emission of about 371，500 tons. Natural gas and electricity consumption accounted for a large proportion， indicating a high dependence on traditional fossil fuels. Under the business-as-usual scenario， by 2035， the carbon dioxide emissions of the park will reach 1，298，000 tons， with no significant change in the energy structure， which remains dominated by fossil fuels. Under the low-carbon scenario， by 2035， the carbon dioxide emissions will be around 496，000 tons， with an optimized energy structure and significant improvements in both economic viability and environmental protection. Under the strong low-carbon scenario， by 2035， the carbon dioxide emissions will be approximately 427，000 tons， with a notable carbon reduction effect， although the implementation difficulty is relatively high. Taking all factors into consideration， it is recommended that the Economic Development Zone adopt a low-carbon energy architecture scheme， with gas security as the main focus， promote the application of energy-saving and efficiency-enhancing technologies such as waste heat recovery， and gradually achieve electrification. The research aims to provide a scientific basis and feasible path for the low-carbon transformation of liquor industrial parks under the Double Carbon Goals， and help the liquor industry achieve sustainable development.