Supplement 1. OpenBUGS computer code for a daily survival model.

File List model_code.txt (MD5: dea33b021e62455deada302e8e52145f) Description Daily survival model to estimate the effects of daily weather (and any other covariates of interest) on phenology These data are inputs to the model: events[d,s,y] = {0,1} whether the phenological event was observed on a given day d, at site s, in year y. temp.cum[s,d,y] = cumulative temperature on a given day d, at site s, in year y. precip7[s,d,y] = the amount of precipitation on the previous 7 days for a given day d, at site s, in year y. frost7[s,d,y] = the number of frost events in the previous week for a given day d, at site s, in year y. N.sites = number of sites N.years.sites[s] = number of years of data at each site