Demographic analysis for article Hurricane-induced demographic changes in a nonhuman primate population

Major disturbance events can have large impacts on the demography and
dynamics of animal populations. Hurricanes are one example of an extreme
climatic event, predicted to increase in intensity due to climate change,
and thus expected to be a considerable threat to population viability.
However, little is understood about the underlying
demographic mechanisms shaping population response following these extreme
disturbances. Here, we analyze 45 years of the most comprehensive
free-ranging nonhuman primate demographic dataset to determine the effects
of major hurricanes on the variability and maintenance
of long-term population fitness. For this, we use
individual-level data to build matrix population models and perform
perturbation analyses. Despite reductions in population growth
rate mediated through reduced fertility, our study reveals a
demographic buffering during hurricane years. As long as survival does not
decrease, our study shows that hurricanes do not result in detrimental
effects at the population level, demonstrating the unbalanced contribution
of survival and fertility to population fitness in long-lived animal
populations.