Supplement 1. The data and Mathematica codes used in the age-dependent survival analysis of Glanville fritillary butterflies.

File List

survival_modelI.nb – Mathematica code for model I of survival analysis

survival_modelII.nb – Mathematica code for model II of survival analysis

individual_analysis.nb – Mathematica code for the analysis of individual errors in death
rates

MCMCAlgorithms.m – Mathematica package needed to run the above programs

MCMCAlgorithms.nb – Used to generate MCMCAlgorithms.m

realdata.txt – Data y for each individual at each census

covariates.txt – Individual
covariates

weather.txt – Temperature at each census

jlast.txt – The last recapture census of each individual 

femalemobility.txt – Mobility of females measured by the number of moves between
different cells in the closed cage

readme.txt – Description of the data files

all.zip – A zip of all files

Description
The files survival_modelI.nb and survival_modelII.nb are Mathematica
programs that can be used to estimate the parameters of the main model, and the
file individual_analysis.nb performs the regressions relating to individual error terms. All the data files
are described in readme.txt.

Download all the files in the same directory. Change in the programs
"workdirectory" to the current directory. The data files  realdata.txt, covariates.txt, weather.txt, and jlast.txt are needed to run the
program survival_xxx.nb. Change
the random seed to obtain different starting values. The posterior
distributions are saved in the results_xxx.txt files.

In the program individual_analysis.nb,
the estimated distribution of individual errors is imported from the file individual_errors.txt. Set
“infile” to femalemobility.txt if individual errors are regressed against the individual’s mobility. The
posterior distribution is saved to the file "outfile".