Federal Recompete Offer Counts: 867 expiring US federal contracts and how many bidders showed up last time

Of 658 expiring US federal contracts that carry an offer count, 253 (38.4 percent) drew exactly one offer at their last competition. Those 253 are worth $5.23bn of $15.04bn. This dataset is 867 federal contracts across 28 NAICS codes whose period of performance ends between 12 August 2026 and 11 February 2028, each carrying the number of offers the government received for the award that is now expiring, the incumbent, the award value, the set-aside code and a permalink to the award on USAspending so every row can be checked independently. Everything here is derived from the public USAspending.gov award search API. No API key, no paid data source, no scraping. The collection script is included. Why it may be of interest. Competition statistics in federal procurement are usually reported as agency-level or government-wide averages. This file is at the level of the individual expiring award, in a named industry code, with a date, which makes it possible to ask which specific upcoming recompetes have historically attracted no competition. The single-offer share varies enormously by industry: janitorial services 79 percent, precision machining 83 percent of 6, landscaping 71 percent, while highway and bridge construction is 0 of 32 and security guard services is 14 percent. Limitations, stated plainly. The offer count describes the expiring award, not the recompete it will become; it is a prior, not a forecast. 209 of the 867 rows have no offer count in the source and are excluded from every percentage above rather than dropped from the file. FPDS data is self-reported by agencies and contains errors. The verdict column is our derived judgement, not source data. 28 NAICS codes is not the whole federal market, though the study began at 12 codes and 237 counted contracts with the same 38 percent rate, so widening it did not move the headline. Per-code breakdowns: https://beeindustriesgov.com/single-offer.html Source repository and collection script: https://github.com/beeindustriesmail-tech/federal-recompete-offer-counts Released CC0. Use it, republish it, quote the number. If you want the count run on a NAICS code that is not in here, ask and we will run it.