Replication Data for: Crazy like a Fox? Are Leaders with Reputations for Madness More Successful at International Coercion?

According to the “Madman Theory” promoted by Richard Nixon and early rationalist scholars, being viewed as mentally unstable is an asset to successful coercion of foreign adversaries. This article offers the first large-N test of this theory. I introduce an original perception-based measure of leaders’ reputations for madness, coded based on news reports, and analyze its effect on both general deterrence and crisis bargaining. I also test several hypotheses about conditions under which perceived madness is expected to be more or less helpful. I find that perceived madness is harmful to general deterrence and is sometimes also harmful in crisis bargaining, but may be helpful in crisis bargaining under certain conditions. My analysis suggests that the harmful effect of perceived madness results from a commitment problem.