Mean seasonal growing degree days, measures of late frost risk and of adverse flowering weather under different climate scenarios.

Late frost risk expressed as (i) probability of a frost day (minimum temperature 5mm and expressed as (i) the probability of 10 or more adverse days during the 7 days before and after flowering, and (ii) mean number of adverse days during the same 15 day period. The timing of budbreak and flowering calculated using spring warming models.