U.S. Sea Level Rise Projections - Grid

The points in this layer represent the 1-degree gridded mean sea level rise projections in centimeters (cm) for years 2020 to 2150. Each location includes five different Global Mean Sea Level (GMSL) scenarios and three different uncertainty confidence limits (percentiles). The difference in GMSL uses the year 2000 as a "baseline" (0.0m). Global Mean Sea Level in year 2100 Scenario Name 0.3 m Low 0.5 m Intermediate-Low 1.0 m Intermediate 1.5 m Intermediate-High 2.0 m High The Global Mean Sea Level impacts regions differently due to issues such as vertical land movement/subsidence, regional ocean dynamics, glacier and ice sheet melt, etc. Percentile Name 17th Low 50th Medium 83rd High These percentiles are intended to capture uncertainty associated with extrapolating the rate of sea level rise acceleration based on historical observations for each location. There are 5 different scenarios and 3 different percentiles that provide a total of 15 different possibilities for interpreting sea level rise for a given location. You can “Filter” the data to select the most appropriate for your work. Here is how you do that: These data were obtained from the Sea Level Rise Technical Report “Data and Tools” section. The Sea Level Rise Technical Report Application Guide provides a wealth of documentation for interpreting and using the various data products from the Sea Level Rise Technical Report. This gridded layer has a companion layer of the U.S. Sea Level Rise Projections - Water Level Station. Source: Mean Sea Level Dataset for "Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States: Updated Mean Projections and Extreme Water Level Probabilities Along U.S. Coastlines" Citation: Sweet, W.V., B.D. Hamlington, R.E. Kopp, C.P. Weaver, P.L. Barnard, D. Bekaert, W. Brooks, M. Craghan, G. Dusek, T. Frederikse, G. Garner, A.S. Genz, J.P. Krasting, E. Larour, D. Marcy, J.J. Marra, J. Obeysekera, M. Osler, M. Pendleton, D. Roman, L. Schmied, W. Veatch, K.D. White, and C. Zuzak, 2022: Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States: Updated Mean Projections and Extreme Water Level Probabilities Along U.S. Coastlines. NOAA Technical Report NOS 01. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Ocean Service, Silver Spring, MD, 111 pp. https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/hazards/sealevelrise/noaa-nos-techrpt01-global-regional-SLR-scenarios-US.pdf Scenario: For each of the 5 GMSL scenarios (identified by the rise amounts in meters by 2100 - 0.3 m , 0.5 m. 1.0 m, 1.5 m and 2.0 m), there is a low, medium (med) and high value, corresponding to the 17th, 50th, and 83rd percentiles. Scenarios (15 total): 0.3 - MED, 0.3 - LOW, 0.3 - HIGH, 0.5 - MED, 0.5 - LOW, 0.5 - HIGH, 1.0 - MED, 1.0 - LOW, 1.0 - HIGH, 1.5 - MED, 1.5 - LOW, 1.5 - HIGH, 2.0 - MED, 2.0 - LOW, and 2.0 - HIGH Years (15 total): 2005, 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050, 2060, 2070, 2080, 2090, 2100, 2110, 2120, 2130, 2140, and 2150 More Info: https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/hazards/sealevelrise/sealevelrise-tech-report.html

本图层中的点位代表2020年至2150年的1度网格平均海平面上升预测值，单位为厘米（cm）。每个地理位置包含5种不同的全球平均海平面（Global Mean Sea Level, GMSL）情景，以及3种以百分位数表征的不确定性置信限。全球平均海平面变化以2000年为基准年，对应海平面变化量为0.0m。
2100年全球平均海平面情景分别为：0.3m（低情景）、0.5m（中低情景）、1.0m（中等情景）、1.5m（中高情景）、2.0m（高情景）。
由于垂直陆地运动/沉降、区域海洋动力学、冰川与冰盖消融等因素影响，全球平均海平面变化对不同区域的影响存在显著差异。
用于表征不确定性的百分位数对应关系为：17th（低置信限）、50th（中等置信限）、83rd（高置信限）。此类百分位数用于量化基于各点位历史观测数据推算海平面上升速率时所伴随的不确定性。
5种情景与3种百分位数组合后，可为任意给定地理位置生成共计15种海平面上升解读方案。您可通过「筛选」功能选择适配自身研究工作的方案。
本数据集源自《海平面上升技术报告》的「数据与工具」章节。《海平面上升技术报告应用指南》提供了丰富的文档资料，用于解读和使用该技术报告中的各类数据产品。本网格图层配套有「美国海平面上升预测——水位站」图层。
数据来源：《美国全球及区域海平面上升情景：美国海岸沿线平均预测更新与极端水位概率》数据集。引用信息：Sweet, W.V., B.D. Hamlington, R.E. Kopp, C.P. Weaver, P.L. Barnard, D. Bekaert, W. Brooks, M. Craghan, G. Dusek, T. Frederikse, G. Garner, A.S. Genz, J.P. Krasting, E. Larour, D. Marcy, J.J. Marra, J. Obeysekera, M. Osler, M. Pendleton, D. Roman, L. Schmied, W. Veatch, K.D. White, and C. Zuzak, 2022: Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States: Updated Mean Projections and Extreme Water Level Probabilities Along U.S. Coastlines. 美国国家海洋和大气管理局（National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NOAA）国家海洋服务局技术报告NOS 01，马里兰州银泉，共111页。官方文档链接：https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/hazards/sealevelrise/noaa-nos-techrpt01-global-regional-SLR-scenarios-US.pdf
针对5种全球平均海平面情景（以2100年海平面上升量（米）标识：0.3m、0.5m、1.0m、1.5m、2.0m），各情景分别对应17th、50th、83rd百分位数，即低、中、高置信限数值。
共计15种情景组合：0.3m-中等、0.3m-低、0.3m-高、0.5m-中等、0.5m-低、0.5m-高、1.0m-中等、1.0m-低、1.0m-高、1.5m-中等、1.5m-低、1.5m-高、2.0m-中等、2.0m-低、2.0m-高。
时间跨度涵盖15个年份：2005年、2020年、2030年、2040年、2050年、2060年、2070年、2080年、2090年、2100年、2110年、2120年、2130年、2140年、2150年。
更多信息请访问：https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/hazards/sealevelrise/sealevelrise-tech-report.html