Does Daylight Saving Time Affect the Robbery Rate in the US? Evidence from US crime record of 2010-2019

The US will experience permanent daylight saving time (DST) upon the passage of the bill Sunshine Protection Act. Reducing outdoor crime is a major benefit that people believe permanent DST can bring us. However, related literature is inconclusive, and no studies use recent data to evaluate the impact of DST on crime in the context of the contemporary US. I use a newer and more comprehensive dataset to examine how DST affects robbery rates between 2010 and 2019 in the United States. Using this new dataset in a regression discontinuity model, I detect no significant effect of the switch to DST or the switch from DST to standard time on the robbery rate for average US counties. However, I also show a 0.40 decrease in the daily robbery rate in rural counties during the first week of the transition back to standard time. The decrease is the largest at noon, but the reduction at noon is quickly offset by a similar-size increase in the following week. I attribute the rural effect to the fact that rural residents do not adjust their schedules to the new time as quickly as urban residents resulting in criminals having less ability to accurately calculate the risk-reward for robbery.