Data from: Predicting range shifts of Davidia involucrata Ball. under future climate change

Understanding and predicting how species will respond to climate
change is crucial for biodiversity conservation.
Here, we assessed future climate change impacts
on the distribution of a rare and endangered plant
species, Davidia involucrate in China, using
the most recent global circulation models developed in the sixth
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC6). We assessed the potential range shifts in this species
by using an ensemble of species distribution models (SDMs). The ensemble
SDMs exhibited high predictive ability and suggested that
the temperature annual range, annual mean temperature, and
precipitation of the driest month are the most influential
predictors in shaping distribution patterns of this species. The
projections of the ensemble SDMs also suggested that D.
involucrate is very vulnerable to future climate change,
with at least one-third of its suitable range expected to be lost in all
future climate change scenarios and will shift to the northward of
high-latitude regions. Similarly, at least
one-fifthof the overlap area of
the current nature
reserve networks and projected suitable
habitat is also expected to be lost. These findings
suggest that it is of
great importance to ensure
that adaptive conservation management
strategies are in place to mitigate the impacts of
climate change on D. involucrate.