Potential Distribution of Anoplophora horsfieldii Hope in China Based on MaxEnt and Its Response to Climate Change

Anoplophora horsfieldii Hope, a significant pest species of the Cerambycidae family, is widely distributed throughout China where it causes severe damage to various living tree species. It has emerged as a critical invasive organism threatening China's agricultural and forestry production as well as ecological security. This study comprehensively analyzed the key environmental factors influencing the geographical distribution of A. horsfieldiiand its spatiotemporal dynamics by integrating multi-source environmental data and employing ecological niche modeling.Model validation demonstrated high reliability and accuracy of our predictions, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) value of 0.933, Kappa coefficient of 0.704, and true skill statistic (TSS) reaching 0.960. Our analysis identified four dominant environmental factors governing the distribution of A. horsfieldii: mean diurnal range (Bio2), temperature annual range (Bio7), precipitation of driest quarter (Bio17), and precipitation of coldest quarter (Bio19).Under current climatic conditions, the total potential suitable distribution area for A. horsfieldiiwas estimated at 212.394×10⁴km², primarily located in central, southern, eastern, southwestern, and northwestern China. Future projections under three climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) suggest significant reductions in highly and moderately suitable habitats, while low-suitability areas may expand into central, eastern and southwestern regions, with Chongqing, Henan and Anhui potentially becoming new suitable habitats. Notably, the centroid of suitable habitats shows a distinct migration trend toward Guangdong Province, exhibiting a characteristic distribution shift pattern described as "from inland to coastal areas and from high to low latitudes."This study provides scientific theoretical support for forestry authorities in controlling the spread of A. horsfieldii, while establishing a solid foundation for future ecological conservation and biosecurity strategies. The findings offer both theoretical insights and practical guidance for pest management and ecosystem protection.