EU27&UK gas supply-transmission-consumption structures with driving factors of consumption change

Russia was the primary natural gas supplier to the EU before the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The substantial reduction in Russian gas supplies to many EU countries precipitated a severe energy crisis across the EU27&UK, leading to significant alterations in their natural gas supply, transmission, and consumption dynamics. To analyze these shifts, we updated our natural gas supply dataset, EUGasSC (originally described in version 1.0), incorporating daily country- and sector-specific supply sources. In version 2.0 of the dataset, we introduce EUGasNet, a newly constructed dataset detailing daily intra-EU natural gas transmission with specific supply sources, utilizing data from ENTSOG (European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas) alongside EUGasSC data. Furthermore, we developed EUGasImpact, a daily dataset capturing sector-specific drivers of consumption changes based on change attribution models employing multiple open datasets.

The EUGasSC and EUGasNet dataset was developed with a gas network flow simulation based on flow mass balance by combining data from multiple datasets including ENTSO-G, ENTSO-E, and Eurostat energy balance (annual and monthly). The EUGasSC dataset was validated with BP Statistical Review of World Energy and multiple Eurostat datasets. The EUGasSC shows the share of gas supplied by Russia in each country to analyze the ‘gap’ that would result from a stop of all Russian exports to Europe. In the dataset v 2.0, we refined our model to simulate the supply share within the EU gas transmission network, represented as EUGasNet.

The version 1.0 of our dataset has been published at ESSD:

https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/15/949/2023/essd-15-949-2023-assets.html

In the EUGasImpact dataset, we assess the change in gas consumption in the pre- and post-invasion periods, along with their driving factors, across the heating, power, and industrial sectors. For the heating sector, we examined whether changes in consumption were due to behavioral shifts or temperature anomalies. To quantify these drivers, we used a behavior-climate attribution model base on empirical temperature-gas-consumption (TGC) curves based on population-weighted air temperatures using the Eurostat population dataset and ERA5 daily 2-meters air temperature data.In the power and industrial sectors, we investigated the potential for renewable energy to replace gas consumption and assessed the impact on power and industrial production. We developed an explainable-reduction attribution model to quantify these driving factors.

The methods and further details are available in our paper:

With version 2.0 of our datasets, we provide multidimensional insights into the dynamics of the EU's gas landscape, offering valuable resources for future research in energy modeling, carbon emission analysis, climate change research, and policy discussions. These datasets facilitate analysis of the changes in the EU gas landscape between the pre- and post-invasion winters and how the EU27&UK adapted their gas supply, transmission, and consumption patterns in response to the crisis. The quantification of driving factors in the residential heating, power, and industrial sectors provides insights into the socio-economic impacts of the gas crisis.

Table. Descriptions of column headers and units of EUGasNet and EUGasImpact.

Dataset
Header
Description 
Unit

EUGasNet
date
Transmission date
DateTime

fromCountry
Start country key
CountryKey

toCountry
End country key
CountryKey

LNG_share
Supply ratio from LNG 
0-1

PRO_share
Supply ratio from EU Production 
0-1

RU_share
Supply ratio from Russian Production 
0-1

AZ_share
Supply ratio from Azerbaijan 
0-1

DZ_share
Supply ratio from Algeria 
0-1

NO_share
Supply ratio from Norway 
0-1

RS_share
Supply ratio from Serbia
0-1

TR_share
Supply ratio from Turkey 
0-1

LY_share
Supply ratio from Libya 
0-1

TotalFlow
Total transmission ammount
KWh

EUGasImpact
date
date 
DateTime

country
country
CountryKey

house_heating
Consumption of house heating
GWh

house_heating_diff_total
Consumption difference compared to pre-invasion periods
GWh

house_heating_diff_T
Consumption differences caused by temperature
GWh

house_heating_diff_behavior
Consumption differences caused by behavior
GWh

house_heating_residual
Consumption differences  residual
GWh

public_heating
Consumption of public heating
GWh

public_heating_diff_total
Consumption difference compared to pre-invasion periods
GWh

public_heating_diff_T
Consumption differences caused by temperature
GWh

public_heating_diff_behavior
Consumption differences caused by behavior
GWh

public_heating_residual
Consumption differences  residual
GWh

power_generated_with_gas
Power generated with gas
GWh

power_generated_with_gas_diff
Differences in power generated  with gas compared to pre-invasion periods
GWh

power_dorp_filled_with_fossil
Gas-powered electricity reduction (if exists) replaced by fossil electricity
GWh

power_dorp_filled_with_green
Gas-powered electricity reduction (if exists) replaced by green electricity
GWh

power_dorp_filled_with_nuclear
Gas-powered electricity reduction (if exists) replaced by nuclear electricity
GWh

power_dorp_can_not_filled
Gas-powered electricity reduction (if exists) can not be replaced
GWh

industrial
Consumption of industrial
GWh

industrial_diff
Consumption difference compared to pre-invasion periods
GWh

reduced_impact_industrial_production
Consumption reduction (if exists) might reduce industrial production
GWh