基于RegCM4.6的中国西北未来气候预测（2007-2099）

对未来气候变化的有效评价，特别是对未来降水量的预测，是西北地区生态环境脆弱、干旱半干旱地区合理制定适应战略的重要依据。本数据是基于RegCM4.6模型和HadGEM2-ES的未来四种不同碳排放浓度（RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP6.0和RCP8.5）情景下，未来2007-2099年空间分辨率为0.25度，时间分辨率分别为3小时，逐日和逐年的多套中国西北（甘肃、宁夏、青海、新疆和陕西5省）气候预测，包括降水（kg m-2 s-1）、气温（K）、气压（Pa）、风速（m s-1）、相对湿度（%）、长波辐射（W m-2）、短波辐射（W m-2）等变量。这些数据表明，在RCP8.5情景下，未来中国西北地区近地表气温将持续变暖，到21世纪末，气温将变得更为显著，超过6℃，未来的降水量将继续增加，到21世纪末将增加100毫米；极端气候指数夏季高温天数将继续增加，这表明中国西北地区的高温将更加频繁，相比之下，连续干燥日将减少。

Effective assessment of future climate change, particularly future precipitation projections, is an important basis for rationally formulating adaptation strategies in the ecologically fragile arid and semi-arid regions of Northwest China. This dataset comprises multiple sets of climate projections for Northwest China (covering five provinces: Gansu, Ningxia, Qinghai, Xinjiang, and Shaanxi) during 2007–2099. These projections are generated based on the RegCM4.6 model and HadGEM2-ES under four future carbon emission concentration scenarios, namely RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5. The spatial resolution of the data is 0.25°, with temporal resolutions of 3 hours, daily, and annual, respectively. Included climate variables are precipitation (kg m⁻² s⁻¹), air temperature (K), atmospheric pressure (Pa), wind speed (m s⁻¹), relative humidity (%), longwave radiation (W m⁻²), and shortwave radiation (W m⁻²). Analysis based on these data shows that under the RCP8.5 scenario, the near-surface air temperature in Northwest China will continue to warm, and this warming trend will become more significant by the end of the 21st century, with the temperature exceeding 6°C. Future precipitation will also continue to increase, reaching an increment of 100 mm by the end of the 21st century. The summer high-temperature days index (an extreme climate indicator) will continue to rise, indicating more frequent high-temperature events in Northwest China. By contrast, the number of consecutive dry days will decrease.

搜集汇总

背景与挑战

背景概述

该数据集是基于RegCM4.6模型和HadGEM2-ES的四种不同碳排放浓度情景（RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP6.0和RCP8.5）下，对中国西北地区（甘肃、宁夏、青海、新疆和陕西5省）2007-2099年的气候预测，包括降水、气温、气压、风速、相对湿度、长波辐射和短波辐射等变量。数据表明，在RCP8.5情景下，未来中国西北地区近地表气温将持续变暖，到21世纪末气温可能超过6℃，降水量将增加100毫米，夏季高温天数增加，连续干燥日减少。