Data from: Climate change is predicted to impact the global distribution and richness of pines (genus Pinus) by 2070

Aim: Climate change is altering habitat suitability for many organisms and
modifying species ranges at a global scale. Here we explored the impact of
climate change on 112 pine species (Pinus), fundamental elements
of Northern terrestrial ecosystems. Location: Global.
Methods: We applied a novel methodology for species distribution
modelling that considers uncertainty in climatic projections and taxon
sampling, and incorporates elements of species’ recent evolutionary
history. We based our niche calculations on climate and soil data and
computed projections across multiple algorithms and IPCC scenarios, which
were ensembled into one single suitability map. We then used phylogenetic
methods to account for recent evolution in climatic requirements by
estimating the evolution of climatic niche. Edaphoclimatic and
evolutionary analyses were then combined to calibrate the projections in
areas showing high uncertainty. We validated our models using naturalized
occurrences of invasive pine species. Results: Our models
predicted that by 2070 most pine species (58%) might face important
reductions of habitat suitability, potentially leading to range losses and
a decrease in species richness, particularly in some regions such as the
Mediterranean Basin and South North America, albeit migration might
mitigate these shifts in some cases. In contrast, our projections showed
increased habitat suitability for approx. 20% of species, which may
undergo range expansions under climate change. Moreover, the consideration
of recent evolutionary trends modified projected scenarios, decreasing
range loss and increasing range expansion for some species. The
independent validation endorsed our models for many species and the
influence of recent evolution in some cases. Conclusions: We predict that
climate change will impose drastic changes in pine distribution and
diversity across biogeographical regions, but the magnitude and direction
of change will vary significantly across regions and taxa. Species-level
responses are likely to be influenced by regional conditions and the
recent evolutionary history of each taxon.