Attributable fraction of congenital syphilis due to the lack of prenatal care

Abstract INTRODUCTION: Although congenital syphilis is preventable, its incidence has increased in Brazil. METHODS: In this ecological study, a Bayesian spatio-temporal model was used to estimate the attributable fraction of congenital syphilis cases due to the lack of prenatal care recorded between 2010 and 2015 in the state of São Paulo, Southeast Brazil. RESULTS: For the year 2016, it was estimated that between 79.4% and 95.3% of the congenital syphilis cases among women who did not have prenatal care could have been prevented. CONCLUSIONS: A significant proportion of congenital syphilis cases can be prevented if prenatal care coverage is expanded.