Reliability of macrofossils in woodrat (Neotoma) middens for detecting low-density tree populations

Macrofossils from woodrat (Neotoma) middens serve as an important proxy for reconstructing past vegetation in arid and semiarid regions of North America. The presence/absence of plant macrofossils in middens can provide valuable information on temporal and spatial patterns of plant migration and range boundaries. The primary aim of this study was to determine how local plant abundance, distance of plant populations from midden sites, and species population density on the landscape affect the probability of occurrence of macrofossils in middens. The study was designed with the primary intent of determining the reliability of middens in detecting scattered populations of Pinus ponderosa. We analyzed macrofossil assemblages from 42 modern woodrat middens from West Carrizo Canyon in southeastern Colorado, near the current eastern range margin of Pinus ponderosa. We compared midden contents with composition of the surrounding vegetation, measuring distance from the midden to the nearest indi...