Simulation and modelling of urban heat islands over the city of eThekwini, South Africa

The study focus on the urban heat islands over the city of eThekwini, South Africa, for the climate periods (2005-2016), (2039-2050), and (2089-2099). MODIS 2013 Landcover, city emissions, reflectivity were used in the setup of the Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM). The CCAM model runs were downscaled from 50 km, to 8 km and lastly to 1 km over the city of eThekwini. The model applied ERAI, and CMIP5 data as model initialization field. Analysis were performed for monthly, seasonal and diurnal time scales to assess the model in capturing the summer night-time urban heat islands over the city of eThekwini. Variables include temperature, wind speed and direction, radiation and sensible heat fluxes. The model output were compared against stations observed parameters at Durban and Mount Edgecombe stations of the South African weather Service. The projections of urban heat islands were analyzed for the future periods (2039-2050), and (2089-2099) respectively.