Wittgenstein Center (WIC) Population and Human Capital Projections - 2023

THIS IS VERSION WIC3.002 (Beta) (<strong>internal version V12,</strong> <strong>the last one was called v11) </strong>FOR INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL VALIDATION OF THE NEW UPDATE. THE OFFICIAL RELEASE DATE WILL BE ANNOUNCED LATER, DEPENDING ON COMMENTS/SUGGESTIONS FROM OUR INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL COLLABORATORS AND USERS. Short Abstract We update the population and human capital components of the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs) at the global level, considering the most recent baseline information. While the long-term assumptions based on extensive analysis and expert solicitations remain unchanged, we modify only the trend component. The first set of SSPs was based on demographic data through 2012. The population structures by age, sex, and education of the base year (2010) have since changed for most countries, mainly due to more recent data and reliable information. The mortality situation has improved in many countries affected by HIV/AIDS and among children in countries with higher mortality. The impact of COVID-19 on demographic trends must be addressed. In many countries, fertility rates have fallen faster than expected. International migration has been irregular and volatile as usual. These changes are reflected in the new update, with some improvements in operationalization. Changes in version "V12": 1. China's TFR updated in light of recently released lower fertility estimates. 2. International migration flows moderated by discarding extreme flows (six five yearly periods: 1990-1995, ..., 2015-2020) 3. Age-sex specific migration flows for under 15 years adjusted with child-women ratio. 4. Education scenario for SSP1/SSP5 was adjusted, replacing extremely fast progression (Fast-track) with an average of global education trend education (in SSP2) and the Fast-track scenarios. 5. Included Ukraine's refugee migration flows (following JRC's report) 6. Updated Mean Years Schooling with the latest data on school duration from UNESCO 7. Country specific zero net migration by the level of educational attainment implemented (2060-2100), replacing the overall zero net migration. 8. Minor correction of ASFR patterns by smoothing mean age at childbearing.