Combining correlative and mechanistic niche models with human activity data to elucidate the invasive potential of a sub-Antarctic insect

Aim

Correlative Species Distribution Models (SDMs) are subject to substantial spatio-temporal limitations when historical occurrence records of data-poor species provide incomplete and outdated information for niche modelling. Complementary mechanistic modelling techniques can, therefore, offer a valuable contribution to underpin more physiologically-informed predictions of biological invasions, the risk of which is often exacerbated by climate change. In this study we integrate physiological and human pressure data to address the uncertainties and limitations of correlative SDMs and to better understand, predict, and manage biological invasions.

Location

Western archipelagos of the Southern Ocean and martime Antarctica

Taxon

Eretmoptera murphyi (Chironomidae), invertebrates.

Methods

Mahalanobis Distances were used for correlative SDM construction for a species with few records. A mechanistic SDM was built around different fitness components (larval survival and lif...