Data repository and Agrimate model for study "Climate-driven crop production volatility amplifies food price and consumption risks"

This repository contains the input data, output data, and the version of the Agrimate model for the associated with the study. Each (input and output) data file are for the respective crop-ssp-gcm-ggcm-period combination given. Ensemble list crop: rice, maize, soybean, wheat ssp: ssp126, ssp585 (Actually the SSP scenarios are constant to 2015 socioeconomic background, the scenarios only refer to RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5) gcm (general circulation model): ipsl-cm6a-lr, gfdl-esm4, mpi-esm1-2-hr, mri-esm2-0, ukesm1-0-ll ggcm (global gridded crop model): epic-iiasa, crover, cygma1p74, dssat-pythia, isam, acea, ldndc, lpjml, pdssat, pepic, promet, simplace-lintul5 period (observation period): 1980-2009, 2010-2039, 2040-2069, 2070-2099 Structure model.zip Contains the used version of the Agrimate model input.zip Contains files necessary to run Agrimate model harvest anomly files: harvest-anomalies_crop={crop}_source=GGCMI-3_{ssp}_{gcm}_{ggcm}_tridecade_{period}.csv harvest trend files: harvest-trends_crop={crop}_source=GGCMI-3_{ssp}_{gcm}_{ggcm}_tridecade_{period}.csv harvest anomly files for quadridecade (for sensitivity analysis; used periods: 1980-2019, 2020-2059, 2060-2090): harvest-anomalies_crop={crop}_source=GGCMI-3_{ssp}_{gcm}_{ggcm}_quadridecade_{period}.csv harvest trend files for quadridecade (for sensitivity analysis; used periods: 1980-2019, 2020-2059, 2060-2090): harvest-trends_crop={crop}_source=GGCMI-3_{ssp}_{gcm}_{ggcm}_quadridecade_{period}.csv food production, consumption, export, imports per country for average baseline 2019-2021 food-balance_baseline=2019-2021_crop={crop}.csv trade flows between countries for average baseline 2019-2021 trade-flows_baseline=2019-2021_crop={crop}.csv output.zip raw Contains raw output files from Agrimate, which contains among others harvest and consumption per macro region or transaction price between macro regions on sub-annual time resolution (24 time steps per year) for the respective period. Each simulation has a 3-year (=72 time steps) spin-up period at the beginning, where the model dynamically evolve to its dynamic unperturbed baseline.This spin-up period is not used for post-simulation analysis. raw output files agrimate_crop={crop}_baseline=2019-2021_regions=AgrimateAll_production_anomalies=GGCMI-3_{ssp}_{gcm}_{ggcm}_tridecade_{period}.nc baseline files agrimate_crop={crop}_baseline=2019-2021_regions=AgrimateAll_baseline_tridecade.nc raw output files for quadridecade (for sensitivity analysis) agrimate_crop={crop}_baseline=2019-2021_regions=AgrimateAll_production_anomalies=GGCMI-3_{ssp}_{gcm}_{ggcm}_quadridecade_{period}.nc baseline files for quadridecade (for sensitivity analysis) agrimate_crop={crop}_baseline=2019-2021_regions=AgrimateAll_baseline_quadridecade.nc processed Contains processed output files from Agrimate, baseline as netcdf and maximum and average annual world market prices and regional consumption losses. csv maximum annual world market price with the respective ssp-gcm-ggcm combination ensemble_aware_annual_max_price_tridecade_{crop}_AgrimateAll_cutoff-100000000_error-no.json average annual world market price with the respective ssp-gcm-ggcm combination ensemble_aware_annual_average_price_tridecade_{crop}_AgrimateAll_cutoff-100000000_error-no.json maximum annual world market price with the respective ssp-gcm-ggcm combination for quadridecade setup ensemble_aware_annual_max_price_quadridecade_{crop}_AgrimateAll_cutoff-100000000_error-no.json bootstraping ensemble for return periods for maximum annual world market price bootstrap_return_period_shift_empirical_AgrimateAll_n-4000.csv bootstraping ensemble for return periods for average annual world market price bootstrap_return_period_shift_empirical_average_AgrimateAll_n-4000.csv bootstraping ensemble for return periods for maximum annual world market price for quadridecade setup bootstrap_return_period_shift_quadridecade_empirical_AgrimateAll_n-4000.csv annual consumption per region {crop}_annual_consumption_loss_kcal_per_region_AgrimateAll_cutoff-1000000000_error-no.csv annual production per region {crop}_annual_production_loss_mln_t_per_region_AgrimateAll_cutoff-1000000000_error-no.csv baseline processed baseline baseline_2019-2021_crops={crop}_regions=AgrimateAll.nc