Influence of CyGNSS L2 wind data on tropical cyclone analysis and forecasts in the coupled HAFS/HYCOM system Frontiers in Earth Science

This study examines the influence of NASA Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CyGNSS) Level 2-derived 10 m (near-surface) wind speed over the ocean on analyses and forecasts within the NOAA operational Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS). HAFS is coupled with a regional configuration of the HYCOM ocean model. The primary advantages of data from the CyGNSS constellation of satellites include higher revisit frequency compared to polar-orbiting satellites, and the availability of reliable wind observations over the ocean surface during convective precipitation. CyGNSS data are available early in the life cycle of tropical cyclones (TCs) when aerial reconnaissance observations are not available. We focus on TCs whose forecasts were initialized when the TC was a depression or tropical storm. In the present study, we find first, that assimilation of CyGNSS near-surface winds improves storm track, intensity, and structure statistics in the analysis and early in the forecast, for many cases. Second, we find that assimilation of CyGNSS observations provides additional insights into the evolution of air-sea interaction in intensifying TCs: In effect, the ocean responds in the coupled model to modifications in the initial 10 m wind field, thereby impacting forecasts of intensity, storm structure, and sea surface height, as demonstrated by two case studies. We also discuss some forecasts where assimilating CYGNSS appears to degrade performance for either intensity or structure.