Transition probabilities (p) used within the model.

Teeth were allocated to their initial health state (I) depending on the treatment strategy and the lesion stage (left column). For non- and micro-invasively treated lesions, transition probabilities per 6-monthly cycle depended on patient’s age (α) and were calculated using hazard functions (middle column). For all follow-up states (F), transition probabilities depended on the time spent in the health state (e.g. the time since a crown had been placed), with three time plateaus being modelled (<2, 2–5, >5 years). To introduce joint parameter uncertainty, a triangular distribution of parameters between their 95% Confidence Intervals (CI) was assumed. For hazard functions, 95% CI (given in brackets) were used within scenario analyses. To simplify the table, we only present the range of follow-up transition probabilities used within the model. Full details (time-dependent mean and 95% CI probabilities) can be found within the Supporting Information. If transition occurred, teeth were allocated to follow-up states according to allocation probabilities (right columns).