data and code descriptions

All kinds of provincial energy consumption data were from the iNEMS database of the Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research of Beijing Institute of Technology46. National greenhouse gas inventory data were used for various energy emission factors, including 2.66 tons of CO2/standard coal for coal, 1.73 tons of CO2/standard coal for oil products, and 1.56 tons of CO2/standard coal for natural gas. The historical GDP data for each province were from the National Bureau of Statistics, and the forecast data were from the high-speed and low-speed scenario data in the ref31 (See Supplementary Table 3 for specific settings). The GDP data were uniformly converted into GDP values with 2020 as the constant price through the GDP index. This study sets the GDP of each province in future years according to the deviation degree of the growth rate of different provinces, and the upper and lower limits are respectively high-speed and low-speed scenario data. The historical population data for each province is from the National Bureau of Statistics47, and the future population forecast is from ref48. The energy consumption per unit output value and the proportion of secondary industry in each province were derived from the National Bureau of Statistics and provincial statistical yearbooks. The historical and future urbanization rate data for each province are from the National Bureau of Statistics and ref49. The planning goals for each province, such as the year of carbon peak, energy intensity, coal proportion, non-fossil energy proportion, and other data, were collected from the official policy documents launched by provincial governments