Data from: Catastrophic dynamics limit Atlantic cod recovery

Collapses and regime changes are pervasive in complex systems (such as
marine ecosystems) governed by multiple stressors. The demise of Atlantic
cod (Gadus morhua) stocks constitutes a text book example of the
consequences of overexploiting marine living resources, yet the drivers of
these nearly synchronous collapses are still debated. Moreover, it is
still unclear why rebuilding of collapsed fish stocks such as cod is often
slow or absent. Here we apply the stochastic cusp model, based on
catastrophe theory, and show that collapse and recovery of cod stocks are
potentially driven by the specific interaction between exploitation
pressure and environmental drivers. Our statistical modelling study
demonstrates that for most of the cod stocks ocean warming could induce a
non-linear discontinuous relationship between fishing pressure and stock
size, which would explain hysteresis in their response to reduced
exploitation pressure. Our study suggests further that a continuing
increase in ocean temperatures will likely limit productivity and hence
future fishing opportunities for most cod stocks of the Atlantic Ocean.
Moreover, our study contributes to the ongoing discussion on the
importance of climate and fishing effects on commercially exploited fish
stocks, highlighting the importance of considering discontinuous dynamics
in holistic ecosystem-based management approaches, particularly under
climate change.