A model for non-equilibrium metapopulation dynamics utilizing data on species occupancy, patch ages and landscape history

1. The distribution pattern of many species reflects the past rather than the current structure of landscapes. Consequently, species are most often not in equilibrium with the current landscape structure. Yet this is a well-known fact, there is no appropriate approach to estimate the colonization rate of non-equilibrium species based on only data on the species occurrence pattern in the landscape. 2. We present an approach to estimate the colonization rate of non-equilibrium metapopulations. The approach requires only data on species presence/absence among its patches (occurrence pattern), data on patch ages and data on the historic distribution of the patches in the landscape. By estimating the past occurrence patterns and colonization events leading to the current pattern of occupied and non-occupied patches, we estimate the colonization rate, including the dispersal kernel. We also show how to estimate effects of local patch conditions and how to include an independent estimate of th...