Subseasonal Precipitation Prediction in the Yangtze River Delta Region Using an Adaptive Bias Correction Method

In this study, we focus on subseasonal precipitation forecasting in the Yangtze River Basin. The selected geographical area ranges from 25° to 36° N and 110° to 121° E (Figure 1). The data used in this study include daily precipitation data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC), covering the period from 1979 to 2021, with a resolution of 0.5°×0.5°. This study also uses daily reanalysis data from the CFS dynamical model provided by Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) for the period 1999–2017 , as well as the six-hour forecast data released from 2017 to 2021. Each forecast release includes predictions for the 0–43-day period ahead (. Additionally, weekly precipitation forecasts from the ECMWF model were used, covering 1995–2021, respectively. These include control forecasts (both forecast and reforecast), 50-member perturbation forecasts from 2015 to 2021, and 10-member reforecast data from 1995 to 2014, with a resolution of 1.5°×1.5°. The forecast lead time for EC models is 0–43 days . In this study, the historical observed data for the same time period come from the China Meteorological Administration Land Data Assimilation System (CLDAS) dataset , with a resolution of 0.0625°×0.0625°, and the time period for comparison and evaluation with forecast results is 2021.