Stochastic Ex-Ante LCA under Multidimensional Uncertainty: Anticipating the Production of Undiscovered Microalgal Compounds in Europe

Due to their biodiversity, microalgae represent a promising
source
of high-value compounds that bioprospecting is aiming to reveal. Performing
an ex-ante Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) to anticipate and potentially
minimize the environmental burden associated with the European production
of a bioprospected microalgal compound is subject to substantial and
multi-factorial uncertainty as the compound remains undiscovered.
Given that any microalgal strain could potentially host the compound
of interest, the ex-ante LCA should consider this bioprospecting uncertainty
together with the uncertainty on the technology and the production
mix. Using a parameterized cultivation simulation and consequential
LCA model and an extensive stochastic pseudo Monte Carlo approach,
we define and propagate techno-operational, bioprospecting, and production
mix uncertainties for a microalgal compound being currently bioprospected
in Europe. We perform global sensitivity analysis using different
sampling strategies to identify the main contributors to the total
output variance. Overall, the uncertainty propagation allowed us to
define and analyze the probabilistic scope for the potential environmental
impacts in the emerging production of high-value microalgal compounds
in Europe based on current knowledge. These findings can support policy-making
as well as actors in the microalgal sector toward technological paths
with lower environmental impact.