Longer crop cycle lengths could offset the negative effects of climate change on Brazilian maize

ABSTRACT Maize (Zea mays) is considered one of the most important crops for world food security. Globally, Brazil is the second largest maize producer and the fourth largest maize consumer. The climate variables is one of the main determining factors for crop yield. Given the possibility of future climate changes, our objective was to evaluate the impact of climate change on maize crop growth and development, assessed strategies to cope with the future crop andto quantify the impacts on various producing regions of Brazil. The DSSAT/CERES-Maize model was calibrated with field data and then used to simulate current and six future climate scenarios, according to the AgMIP protocols. We selected three regional climate circulation models (GCMs) and two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for the period of 2040-2069. For most of the producing regions, the simulations showed a decreasing trend during both the summer and autumn sowing seasons, except the autumn crops in Southern Brazil. We found the air temperature rise as the main factor for yield decreasing, and this finding provides an adaptation option to cope with future climate, as the country has a great latitudinal range for crop management, meaning genotypes with extended cycles could compensate the climate change, and thereby avoid the yield loss for maize crops.