Data from: Spring ephemeral Erythronium umbilicatum may not be vulnerable to phenological mismatch with overstory trees

In this study, we aimed to understand the effects of experimental shade on the spring ephemeral Erythronium umbilicatum and predict the extent of phenological mismatch between E. umbilicatum and the canopy under future climate warming. We conducted this study in the Duke Forest (southeastern North Carolina, USA). We experimentally shaded Erythronium umbilicatum for one to six additional weeks prior to canopy leaf-out to test for immediate and lagged effects of early shading on the timing of senescence and the probability of survival and flowering. To predict the potential for earlier shading, we combined long-term time series of spring air temperature (PRISM Climate Group, Oregon State University, 2022), remotely-sensed tree leaf-out (MOD13Q1.061; Didan, 2021), and E. umbilicatum flowering phenology.