Data for: Sanctions, Relocation and Entrepreneurship Development

Research Hypothesis: This dataset tests whether economic sanctions generate systematic business migration to neighboring countries maintaining customs unions with sanctioned economies, potentially undermining sanctions effectiveness. Following March 2022 Western sanctions on Russia, Kazakhstan—an Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) member—experienced dramatic foreign firm registration increases. The hypothesis predicts migration concentrates in border regions where firms can maintain Russian market access, driven primarily by individual entrepreneurs with lower relocation costs than corporations.
What the Data Shows: The dataset combines firm-level registrations (combined_firms_final.dta) from Kazakhstan's Bureau of National Statistics with regional indicators (controls.xlsx): 8 regions × 24 months = 192 observations. Key findings: (1) Border regions experienced 24-34 additional monthly foreign firm registrations post-March 2022 (p<0.01), representing 150-200% increases; (2) 98.7% driven by foreign individuals (KFS 37) not legal entities (KFS 36); (3) Migration concentrated in Russia-adjacent regions. Foreign registrations averaged 15.18 per region-month (14.74 individuals, 0.44 entities), maximum 154. Border regions are smaller (794K vs 1.19M population), more urbanized (59.3% vs 36.4%), higher internet connectivity (1,696 vs 850 per 10K), higher crime (4.46 vs 2.30 per 1K), more developed financial infrastructure.
Data Collection: Firm data from Enterprise Register (stat.gov.kz) covers 1991-2024; analysis uses 2021-2022. Records include daily registration dates, business IDs (BIN), regional location, and KFS ownership: Code 36=foreign legal entities, Code 37=foreign individuals. Regional controls collected monthly from: Bureau of National Statistics (demographics, economics), Portal of Legal Statistics (crime, inspections), National Bank (financial development). Daily registrations aggregated to monthly counts. Sample: four border regions (Aktobe, Kostanay, Pavlodar, West Kazakhstan) as treatment; four non-border regions (Kyzylorda, Jambyl, Mangystau, Turkestan) as controls. Pre-treatment: Jan 2021-Feb 2022; post-treatment: Mar-Dec 2022.
Interpretation and Use: Difference-in-differences coefficient represents causal effect under validated parallel trends (pre-treatment interaction p=0.305). KFS 36/37 distinction is critical: KFS 37 dominance reveals individual migration not corporate relocation. Border concentration supports circumvention: firms locate where Russian market access is easiest via EAEU free movement.
Limitations: captures registrations not operations; cannot identify firm nationality; lacks financial/employment data; short post-treatment period.
Applications: sanctions effectiveness, crisis entrepreneurship, economic geography of institutional shocks, policy evaluation of customs union circumvention mechanisms.