Modeling the distribution of the rocket-frog, Allobates olfersioides (Anura, Aromobatidae), in the Brazilian northeastern Atlantic Forest: implications for the conservation of a vulnerable species

Allobates olfersifoides is a forest-dwelling dendrobatoid frog distributed in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. In northeastern Brazil, it inhabits rainforest fragments in altered landscapes, resulting in imprecise distribution maps. In this study, we model areas with the highest environmental suitability for A. olfersioides based on its ecological niche. We used 32 independent occurrence records and seven environmental variables to model suitable areas using the MaxEnt algorithm. We also evaluated the overlap between these areas and the species’ geographic range polygon proposed by IUCN and areas protected within conservation units. Precipitation in the driest month and the coldest quarter of the year were the most important variables related to A. olfersioides’ potential distribution. Areas with the highest potential for the distribution of the species encompassed nearly 54,547.5 km2, almost 7% smaller than the species range predicted by the IUCN. Approximately 42.2% of the IUCN polygon did not overlap with areas with the highest climatic suitability for A. olfersioides, and about 86% of the areas modeled as suitable for the species did not overlap with conservation units. Our results suggest that the areas potentially occupied by A. olfersioides may be more limited than previously thought, and the species is threatened in most of its range.