Multiple glacial refugia for cool-temperate deciduous trees in northern East Asia: the Mongolian oak as a case study

In East Asia, temperate forests are predicted to have retracted southward to c. 30° N during the last glacial maximum (LGM) based on fossil pollen data, whereas phylogeographic studies have often suggested glacial in situ survival of cool-temperate deciduous trees in their modern northern ranges. Here we report a study of the genetic diversity and structure of 29 natural Mongolian oak (Quercus mongolica) populations using 19 nuclear simple sequence repeat (nSSR) loci and four chloroplast DNA fragments. Bayesian clustering analysis with nSSRs revealed five groups, which were inferred by approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) to have diverged in multiple refugia through multiple glacial–interglacial cycles. Analysis of chloroplast DNA variation revealed four lineages that were largely but incompletely geographically disjunct. Ecological niche modelling (ENMs) indicated a southward range shift of the oak's distribution at the LGM, although high suitability scores were also evident in the C...