Is overconfidence a motivated bias? Experimental evidence (MOC)

Are overconfident beliefs driven by the motivation to view oneself positively? We test the relationship between motivation and overconfidence using two distinct, but often conflated measures: better-than-average (BTA) beliefs and overplacement. Our results suggest that motivation can indeed affect these faces of overconfidence, but only under limited conditions. Whereas BTA beliefs are inflated by motivation, introducing some specificity and clarity to the standards of assessment (Experiment 1) or to the trait’s definition (Experiments 2 and 3) reduces or eliminates this bias in judgment overall. We find stronger support for a cognitive explanation for overconfidence, which emphasizes the effect of task difficulty. The difficulty of possessing a desirable trait (Experiment 4) or succeeding on math and logic problems (Experiment 5) affected self-assessment more consistently than does motivation. Finally, we find the lack of an objective standard for vague traits allows people to create idiosyncratic definitions and view themselves as better than others in their own unique ways (Experiment 6). Overall, the results suggest motivation’s effect on BTA beliefs is driven more by idiosyncratic construals of assessment than by self-enhancing delusion. They also suggest that by focusing on vague measures (BTA rather than overplacement) and vague traits, prior research may have exaggerated the role of motivation in overconfidence.

是否由自我正面的动机驱使而导致的过度自信信念？本研究旨在探究动机与过度自信之间的关系，通过两种不同但又常常被混淆的测量方法进行测试：优于平均水平的信念（BTA）和过度定位。研究发现，动机确实可以影响这些过度自信的表现，但仅在特定条件下。当评估标准（实验1）或特质定义（实验2和3）引入了更多的具体性和清晰度时，这种判断偏差整体上得到了减少或消除。我们发现，对于过度自信的认知解释得到了更强的支持，该解释强调了任务难度的影响。拥有理想特质的难度（实验4）或成功解决数学和逻辑问题（实验5）对自我评估的影响，比动机更为一致。最后，我们发现，缺乏对模糊特质的客观标准，使得人们能够创造出独特的定义，并以自己独特的方式将自己视为优于他人（实验6）。总体而言，研究结果暗示，动机对优于平均水平的信念的影响，更多地是由评估的独特解读所驱动，而非自我增强的错觉。此外，研究还表明，先前的研究可能由于过度关注模糊的测量方法（BTA而非过度定位）和模糊的特质，而夸大了动机在过度自信中的角色。