Replication files for 'Estimating warfare-related civilian mortality in the early modern period: Evidence from the Low Countries, 1620–99'

Early modern warfare in western Europe exposed civilian populations to violence,
hardship, and disease. Despite limited empirical evidence, the ensuing
mortality effects are regularly invoked by economic historians to explain
patterns of economic development. Using newly collected data on adult burials
and war events in the seventeenth-century Low Countries, we estimate early
modern war-driven mortality in localities close to military activity. We find a
clear and significant general mortality effect consistent with the localized
presence of diseases. During years with major epidemic disease outbreaks, we demonstrate
a stronger mortality effect. However, this effect is spatially more variable
during epidemics, with
excess mortality not monotonically declining with distance from warfare. Given
the omnipresence of warfare in the seventeenth-century Low Countries, war-driven
mortality was remarkably constant rather than a sharp discontinuity. The
economic impact of warfare likely played out over the long term rather than
driven by sudden large mortality spikes creating rapid structural change.