Strait of Hormuz Disruption, Africa–Asia Trade Linkages, and Policy Options for African States

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical maritime chokepoint for oil, liquefied natural gas, and related petrochemical flows. When insecurity in or around the Strait disrupts navigation, the effects are not confined to Gulf littoral states. They propagate through energy prices, war-risk insurance, freight costs, exchange rates, and input markets, and they can therefore reach African consumers through both direct and indirect Africa–Asia trade channels. This manuscript examines how such disruption risk can transmit into African prices and welfare, distinguishes short-run from medium-run effects, and derives differentiated policy options for African states under alternative disruption scenarios. The study combines a structured integrative review with product-level bilateral trade analysis using ITC Trade Map data for Asia and “Africa not elsewhere specified” for 2023–2025, supplemented by continent-scale triangulation from UNCTAD, IMF, IEA, EIA, World Bank, WTO, FAO, and AfDB sources. The Trade Map data show a narrow, statistically residual relationship dominated by machinery and electrical goods rather than a continent-wide representation of Africa–Asia trade. Africa-wide exposure therefore lies mainly in indirect channels: global oil and LNG repricing, shipping and insurance costs, exchange-rate pass-through, fertilizer-dependent food systems, and Asia-linked imported manufactures. The findings indicate that vulnerability is highest where net fuel import dependence, weak external buffers, imported food reliance, fertilizer dependence, and thin fiscal space coincide. Policy implications are differentiated across time horizons. Immediate crisis management should rely on targeted protection, transparent foreign-exchange prioritization, and logistics monitoring rather than blanket subsidies. Medium-run resilience depends on procurement reform, fertilizer-access strategies, and corridor efficiency. Long-run resilience requires structural transformation through energy diversification, agro-input capacity, and AfCFTA-oriented regionalization. The manuscript argues that defensible policy under uncertainty must protect vulnerable households while preserving macroeconomic credibility and strategic autonomy.