Risk factors for lower extremity deep vein thrombosis in patients with acute necrotizing pancreatitis and effectiveness of risk assessment models

ObjectiveTo investigate the influencing factors and independent risk factors for lower extremity deep vein thrombosis （DVT） in patients with acute necrotizing pancreatitis （ANP）， to analyze the effectiveness of three commonly used risk assessment models for thrombosis （Caprini score， Padua score， and Wells score）， and to provide a reference for clinical identification of high-risk individuals and optimization of prevention and treatment strategies.MethodsA retrospective analysis was performed for the clinical data of 320 patients with ANP who were admitted to Luzhou People’s Hospital and The Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University from April 2013 to April 2024， and according to the presence or absence of DVT during hospitalization， the patients were divided into thrombosis group with 25 patients and control group with 295 patients. After propensity score matching， the two groups were compared in terms of past history and various examination results during hospitalization. The risk factors for lower extremity DVT in ANP patients during hospitalization were analyzed through univariate and multivariate Logistic regression， and a DVT risk prediction model was established based on independent influencing factors. The receiver operating characteristic （ROC） curve was used to assess the performance of models， and the DeLong test was used for comparison of the area under the ROC curve （AUC）， sensitivity， and specificity. The independent-samples t test or the Mann-Whitney U test was used for comparison of continuous data between two groups； the chi-square test was used for comparison of categorical data between groups.ResultsAfter matching， the patients were divided into thrombosis group with 24 patients and control group with 112 patients. The clinical characteristics analysis showed that compared with the control group， the thrombosis group had significantly higher degree of pancreatic necrosis， D-dimer level， Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis （BISAP） score， and proportion of patients undergoing dialysis （all P<0.05）. The multivariable Logistic regression analysis showed that BISAP score， degree of pancreatic necrosis， and D-dimer level were independent risk factors for lower extremity DVT in ANP patients during hospitalization （all P<0.05）. The BISAP-Caprini score model had an AUC of 0.832 （95% confidence interval： 0.722 — 0.942， P<0.001） in predicting the risk of lower extremity DVT， with a Youden index of 1.661， an optimal cut-off value of 0.26， a sensitivity of 75.0%， and a specificity of 91.1%.ConclusionD-dimer， BISAP score， and the degree of pancreatic necrosis are independent risk factors for lower extremity DVT in patients with ANP during hospitalization， and the BISAP-Caprini score model can effectively predict the risk of DVT in ANP patients.