Identification of determinants of pollen donor fecundity using the hierarchical neighborhood model

Individual differences in male reproductive success drive genetic drift and natural selection, altering genetic variation and phenotypic trait distributions in future generations. Therefore, identifying the determinants of reproductive success is important for understanding the ecology and evolution of plants. Here, based on the spatially-explicit mating model (the neighborhood model), we develop a hierarchical probability model that links co-dominant genotypes of offspring and candidate parents with the phenotypic determinants of male reproductive success. The model accounts for pollen dispersal, genotyping errors as well as individual variation in selfing, pollen immigration, and differentiation of immigrant pollen pools. Unlike the classic neighborhood model approach, our approach is specially designed to account for excessive variation (overdispersion) in male reproductive success. Using the Bayesian framework, we implemented the estimation method that, among others, allows the sele...