GDO Indicator for Forecasting Unusual Warm and Cool Conditions based on the forecast of NCEP, 1-month lead time (version 1.0.0)

This layer provides an early warning of extreme temperature conditions over the world based on accumulated intensity of daily temperature exceedances of the forecast with lead times ranging from 0 to 3 months. These are derived from the forecasted daily maximum and minimum temperatures relative to the 10th/90th percentile of the climatology provided by the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) through the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). The early warning is plotted only when and where the forecast is considered robust (with at least 40% of the ensemble members associated with extreme forecasts) and associated with relative extreme values (based on hindcasts). The colors indicate the return period of the intensity and the coherency of the ensemble members of the forecast model according to the reference period that spans from 1993 to 2016.