Data from: Wet bulb globe temperature from climate model outputs: a method for projecting hourly site-specific values and trends.

Increasing temperature will impact future outdoor worker safety but quantifying this impact to develop local adaptations is challenging. Wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) is the preferred thermal index for regulating outdoor activities in occupational health, athletic, and military settings, but global circulation models (GCMs) have coarse spatiotemporal resolution and do not always provide outputs required to project the full diurnal range of WBGT. This article presents a novel method to project WBGT at local spatial and hourly temporal resolutions without many assumptions inherent in previous research. We calculate sub-daily future WBGT from GCM output and then estimate hourly WBGT based on a site-specific, historical diurnal cycles. We test this method against observations at U.S. Army installations and find results match closely. We then project hourly WBGT at these locations from January 1, 2025, to December 31, 2100, to quantify trends and estimate future periods exceeding outdoor activity modification thresholds. We find regional patterns affecting WBGT, suggesting accurately projecting WBGT demands a localized approach. Results show increased frequency of hours at high WBGT and, using U.S. military heat thresholds, we estimate impacts to future outdoor labor. By mid-century, some locations are projected to experience an average of 20 or more days each summer when outdoor labor will be significantly impacted. The methodÕs fine spatiotemporal resolution enables detailed analysis of WBGT projections, making it useful applied at specific locations of interest.

气温升高将对未来户外劳动者的安全构成威胁，但要量化这一影响以制定本土化应对策略，却颇具挑战。湿球黑球温度（Wet bulb globe temperature, WBGT）是职业健康、体育及军事场景中规范户外活动的首选热环境指数，但全球环流模型（Global Circulation Models, GCMs）的时空分辨率较为粗糙，且往往无法提供完整推演湿球黑球温度日变化范围所需的输出数据。本文提出一种全新方法，可在无需沿用既往研究中诸多固有假设的前提下，推演局地空间尺度与逐小时时间分辨率下的湿球黑球温度。我们先基于全球环流模型的输出数据计算日内逐时段未来湿球黑球温度，再结合特定场地的历史日变化周期估算逐小时湿球黑球温度。我们以美国陆军基地的实测数据对该方法进行验证，结果显示二者匹配度极高。随后我们对2025年1月1日至2100年12月31日期间上述地点的逐小时湿球黑球温度进行推演，以量化其变化趋势，并估算未来超过户外活动调整阈值的时段。研究发现影响湿球黑球温度的区域分布特征，这表明精准推演湿球黑球温度需采用局地化方法。结果显示高湿球黑球温度时段的出现频次显著增加；结合美军热环境阈值，我们估算了该变化对未来户外作业的影响。至本世纪中叶，部分场地预计每年夏季平均将有20天及以上的时段出现显著影响户外作业的热环境状况。该方法凭借精细的时空分辨率，可实现湿球黑球温度推演结果的精细化分析，因而可有效应用于目标特定场地的相关研究。