Declining basal motion drives the long-term slowing of Athabasca Glacier, 1961-2019, Canada

Globally, glaciers are shrinking in response to climate change, with implications for global sea level rise as well as downstream ecosystems and water resources. Sliding at the ice-bed interface (basal motion) provides a mechanism for glaciers to respond rapidly to climate change. While the short-term dynamics of glacier basal motion (< 10 years) have received substantial attention, little is known about how basal motion and its sensitivity to subglacial hydrology changes over long (> 50 year) timescales – this knowledge is required for accurate prediction of future glacier change. We compare historical data with modern estimates from field-collected and remotely-sensed data at Athabasca Glacier and show that, between 1961 and 2019, the glacier thinned by 51 meter ( - 18 %). However, a concurrent increase in surface slope results in minimal change in the average driving stress (-10 kilopascal, - 7%). These geometric changes coincide with a uniform surface slow down of surface velocity (-15 meter a-1, -45%). Historical observations and simplified ice modeling suggest that declining basal motion accounts for most of this slow down (63 % at a minimum). A decline in basal motion can be explained by increasing basal friction resulting from geometric change in addition to increasing meltwater flux through an efficient subglacial hydrologic system. There is some evidence that changes in basal motion in the overdeepened reach are responsible for slowing basal motion several km up-glacier. These results highlight the need to include time-varying dynamics of basal motion in glacier models and analyses. These findings suggest declining basal motion may reduce the flux of ice to lower elevations, helping to mitigate glacier mass loss in a warming climate.