Overseas Merchandise Trade

System of recording Overseas merchandise trade statistics include all merchandise imported into or exported from New Zealand. This is known as the "general" system of recording trade statistics as defined by the UN Statistical Commission. Merchandise trade Merchandise trade includes goods that add to or subtract from the material resources in New Zealand as a result of their movement in or out of the country. These exclude: Exports: goods consigned to New Zealand forces overseas or diplomatic representatives overseas goods consigned for modification or repair currency transactions in gold, silver, current coin consignments valued under $1,000 second-hand clothing for foreign aid projects replacements, short-shipped or short-packed goods returnable containers and returnable samples aircraft parts for use in New Zealand aircraft overseas and unserviceable parts removed from foreign aircraft and being returned overseas temporary trade items and tourist effects leaving New Zealand. Imports: temporary imports into New Zealand such as tourist effects, returnable samples and containers, and transit goods fish landed by New Zealand vessels goods (other than motor vehicles) for officials of overseas countries passenger baggage imported permanently consignments valued under $1,000 currency transactions in gold, silver, current coin goods on loan replacements, short-shipped or short packed goods recorded previously goods imported for use by foreign armed forces. Basis of valuation Exports (including re-exports) are valued as free on board (fob), which is the value of goods at New Zealand ports before export, and are shown in New Zealand dollars. Imports are valued as both value for duty (vfd) and cost including insurance and freight (cif), and are shown in New Zealand dollars. Customs duty is based on vfd, the value of imports before the addition of insurance and freight costs. The vfd value equates approximately with the fob value of the goods in the exporting country. However, the cif value of imports is preferred for most economic analyses as it is the actual cost of the goods paid by importers. Trade balance values are calculated by deducting imports (cif) from exports (fob). These two valuations are not entirely comparable, because the cif valuation includes insurance and freight to New Zealand while the fob valuation excludes insurance and freight from New Zealand. Data source We obtain data from export and import entry documents lodged with New Zealand Customs Service (NZCS). We convert export values provided in foreign currencies by NZCS to New Zealand dollars (NZD), using weekly exchange rates when the statistics are compiled. For exports, a rise in the NZD has a downward influence on prices and, as a consequence, quantities and values reduce. NZCS provides import values in NZD to Statistics NZ after converting from the foreign currency when import documents are processed. NZCS sets the exchange rates each fortnight. For imports, a rise in the NZD has a downward influence on prices and an upward influence on quantities. The combined influence on values can be either positive or negative. Classifications New Zealand Harmonised System Classification From January 2022, we compile overseas merchandise trade (OMT) data using the updated Harmonised System classification (HS2022). We used HS2017 in OMT from January 2017, and before January 2017, HS2012 applies. The classification changes mean that data users need to take care when analysing time-series data. As with the change from HS2012 to HS2017, a number of new codes were introduced and a number of codes became obsolete. These changes took effect from the January 2022 month. We will use HS2022 within OMT statistics until the next five-yearly review in 2027. Minor amendments may still occur on an adhoc basis. Although the classification change potentially affects the published seasonally adjusted and trend series, our investigations show a negligible effect. We will communicate any effects we find when conducting our normal seasonal adjustment or trend series review processes. HS2022 changes have been implemented in overseas trade indexes (OTI). See Overview of 2022 updates to the New Zealand Harmonised System Classification for information on how HS2022 has affected overseas merchandise trade data. For a copy of the concordance from H2017 to HS2022, visit Ariā. Broad economic category groups Broad economic category (BEC) groups are arranged, as far as practicable, to align with the System of National Accounts’ three basic classes: capital goods, intermediate goods, and consumption goods. We categorise commodities in BEC groups on the basis of their main end use. This means, for example, that all video recorders are treated as consumption goods even though some are used in business. Similarly, all helicopters are treated as transport equipment even though some are military goods (and are treated as such in the national accounts). Standard International Trade Classification The Standard International Trade Classification (SITC) is an output classification that uses Harmonised System (HS) codes at the six-digit level as building blocks. It was designed by the United Nations as an analytical tool for economic analysis, and includes some simple implications regarding level of processing. Published figures are at a high level of aggregation; more disaggregated information is available on Infoshare. Contact customer services at: [email protected] for customised jobs using the SITC Rev 4 classification. We compile OMT statistics in close accordance with the United Nations' International Merchandise Trade Statistics Concepts and Definitions. OMT data, after adjustment, is used in the balance of payments and national accounts. The adjustments are for coverage, timing, valuation, and classification. Seasonal adjustment Seasonally adjusted series We calculate seasonally adjusted series monthly and for calendar quarters using X-13ARIMA-SEATS, which adjusts for outlying values and uses a centred moving average. The X-13ARIMA-SEATS package is an updated version of X-12-ARIMA, developed by the U.S. Census Bureau. Seasonal adjustment removes the estimated impact of regular seasonal events, such as pre-Christmas purchasing, from time series. This makes the figures for adjacent periods more comparable. Seasonally adjusted figures are estimates and are subject to revision each period, with the largest changes generally occurring in the latest periods. Seasonal adjustment in Statistics NZ has more information. Trend series Time series can be split into trend, seasonal, and irregular components. Seasonal adjustment removes the seasonal component, while trend estimation removes the seasonal and irregular components. Trend estimates reveal the underlying direction of movement in a series and are used to identify turning points. We calculate the trend series using X-13ARIMA-SEATS. The length of the centred moving average is selected automatically and can be 9, 13, or 23 months, depending on the relative variability of the irregular component compared with the trend. A long-moving average smoothes the trend series but slows the response to underlying changes in growth rates. A short-moving average produces a trend series that is less smooth but quicker to identify turning points. To improve estimation of the underlying movement, we calculate the imports trend after removing individual import items that have cif values of $100 million or more, such as large aircraft and ships. The trade-balance trend is calculated by subtracting the imports trend from the exports trend. We recalculate trend figures each month. Using new monthly data means that previously published trend estimates are revised. These revisions mainly affect the latest months and can be large if a trade value is initially treated as an outlier but is later found to be part of the underlying trend. Confidentiality Under Section 37A (d) of the Statistics Act, the Government Statistician may disclose details of external trade, movement of ships, and cargo handled at ports. However, we understand that the release of merchandise trade commodity information can, in some cases, place commercially sensitive information in the public domain. We can provide a limited form of confidential status for commodity items (at the discretion of the Government Statistician), on application by a company or business. In practice, all confidential HS codes are aggregated into the code 9809.00.00.00 to protect their confidentiality and to maintain total export and import values. The only aggregates that include the confidential codes are total exports, total imports, and the total exports and imports by country. For more information about trade data confidentiality, see https://www.stats.govt.nz/about-us/legislation-policies-and-guidelines/trade-confidentiality. Revisions Overseas merchandise trade statistics, like all macro-economic statistics published by Stats NZ, are subject to revision and can change after publication. More information on our revision policy is available on our website. Why overseas trade data changes Overseas merchandise trade statistics are published monthly and made available to users as soon as possible, based on a pre-determined monthly release schedule. Statistics are generally released 15-18 working days after the reference month. OMT data is published as provisional for the first three months so that late data (i.e. data received after publication) can be included and updates made as more information becomes available. This process helps to make published trade statistics more accurate. Data may change due to routine monthly or annual updates, classification changes, or revisions due to errors in the original data. Monthly updates Previously published data is revised each month. Late data is included in revised published statistics and amendments are made as more information becomes available. The data we publish remains provisional for the first three months after data is first released. Final figures are published in the fourth month after release. For example, July data is first published in August as provisional (version 1); it is then updated and published in September (version 2), updated and published again in October (version 3), with the fourth and final version published in November. Annual review of suppressed data At the request of an exporter or importer, confidential merchandise trade data can be suppressed for up to 24 months. The length of this suppression can be extended further on request. We review data each year and make previously suppressed data available if the suppression is lifted. More information on overseas merchandise trade confidentiality is available on our website. Classification changes OMT data is published according to country groups based on present day membership. Examples of country groupings are the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), and the Association of Southeast Asian Network (ASEAN). If the members of a group change, the data for that group is revised back to the start of the series. When other classifications used to publish OMT data change, such as the New Zealand Harmonised System Classification, existing data will not be amended. Revisions due to errors Revisions due to errors in published data are uncommon. Statistics NZ will consider revising the data only if it results in a substantial change to the chapter-level aggregate data. Find out about changes to trade data in our monthly information releases We publish updates to previous trade statistics in each monthly OMT information release. Individual amendments are not highlighted and are simply incorporated into the next release. Any revisions due to classification changes or errors in previously published data will usually occur at the same time as the regular monthly release of OMT data. These will be highlighted in the information release. en-NZ