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Can Time-Varying Risk of Rare Disasters Explain Aggregate Stock Market Volatility?

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NBER2008-10-01 更新2025-01-04 收录
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https://www.nber.org/papers/w14386
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Why is the equity premium so high, and why are stocks so volatile? Why are stock returns in excess of government bill rates predictable? This paper proposes an answer to these questions based on a time-varying probability of a consumption disaster. In the model, aggregate consumption follows a
提供机构:
美国国家经济研究局
创建时间:
2008-10-01
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