Projections of Permafrost Thaw and Carbon Release for RCP 4.5 and 8.5, 1901-2299

This dataset consists of an ensemble of model projections from 1901 to 2299 for the northern hemisphere permafrost domain. The model projections include monthly average values for a common set of diagnostic outputs at a spatial resolution of 0.5 x 0.5 degrees latitude and longitude. The model simulations resulted from a synthesis effort organized by the Permafrost Carbon Network to evaluate the impacts of climate change on the carbon cycle in permafrost regions in the high northern latitudes. The model teams used different historical input weather data, but most used driver data developed by the Climate Research Unit - National Centers for Environmental Prediction (CRUNCEP) as modified for the Multiscale Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP). The teams scaled the driver data for the projections using output from global climate models from the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The synthesis evaluated the terrestrial carbon cycle in the modern era and projected future emissions of carbon under two climate warming scenarios: Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5 (RCP45 and RCP85) from CMIP5. RCP45 represents emissions resulting in a global climate close to the target climate in the Paris Accord. RCP85 represents unconstrained greenhouse gas emissions.

本数据集汇聚了自1901年至2299年对北半球永久冻土域的模型预测结果。模型预测涵盖了在0.5 x 0.5度经纬度空间分辨率下，一组常用诊断输出的月平均数值。这些模型模拟是通过永久冻土碳网络组织的一项综合研究完成的，旨在评估气候变化对高纬度北极地区永久冻土区域碳循环的影响。各模型团队采用了不同的历史气象输入数据，但大多数团队使用了气候研究单元-国家环境预报中心（CRUNCEP）开发的驱动数据，该数据已根据多尺度陆地模型互比较项目（MsTMIP）进行了修改。团队利用第五次耦合模型互比较项目（CMIP5）的全球气候模型输出对驱动数据进行缩放，以进行预测。综合研究评估了现代时期的陆地碳循环，并基于CMIP5的代表性浓度路径4.5（RCP45）和8.5（RCP85）两种气候变暖情景，预测了未来碳的排放。RCP45代表导致全球气候接近巴黎协定目标气候的排放；RCP85则代表不受限制的温室气体排放。