Table of key parameter values.

The ‘Model’ column referrers to the best model defined in the model selection procedure. The values r0 and rf are the initial and final exponential growth rates implied by the other model parameters. Note that values of r assume a fully susceptible population to ensure that the change in growth rates are comparable between countries. The term I(−21) indicates the number of infected persons 21 days prior to the first included observation. χ0, χf, r0, rf, have day−1 units; ρ0 and ρf are probabilities. The error terms ϵ1 and ϵ2 are defined according to the definition of the overdispersion term used in the Negative Binomial distribution as implemented in R (i.e. in the limit as ϵ becomes large, the error becomes Poisson).