County-level output dataset accompanying a manuscript under double-blind review at Communications Sustainability

This dataset accompanies a manuscript currently under double-blind peer review at Communications Sustainability. Author identity is therefore omitted from this record and will be added upon acceptance. Contents: County-level projections of climate-driven agricultural reorganisation in the United States, 2025–2050. Six CSV tables covering yield projections (8 crops × 2,902 counties × 26 years × 2 emission scenarios), climate projections (10-GCM SSP2-4.5 and 9-GCM SSP3-7.0 ensembles), stranded-asset valuations (three independent methods), rural-decline indicators (444 ERS farming-dependent counties), insurance mispricing (4,978 county-crop pairs), and northern-frontier opportunity scores (514 counties). Source data: USDA NASS QuickStats, NOAA nClimDiv, CMIP6 via Pangeo/ESGF, USDA, RMA Summary of Business, USDA ERS Atlas, Census ACS, BLS CPI via FRED. Processing pipeline: (Python with LightGBM gradient-boosted trees and the Schlenker-Roberts process-based extreme-degree-day damage function) is reproducible end-to-end. Total records: ~437,000 across all files. All values in 2023 USD. CC-BY 4.0.