Return of Austerity Imperils Global Health, 2021-2024

This study was conducted in response to widespread concern about the global lack of preparedness for the coronavirus pandemic, particularly in lower-income and middle-income countries. The research was motivated by appeals from international organisations for increased investment in public health infrastructure and pandemic response systems. The primary aim was to assess whether national health budgets in these countries were likely to grow in line with such recommendations, or whether economic pressures would lead to reductions in public spending.

The study relied on publicly available fiscal projections released by a major international financial institution. These projections included anticipated government expenditure on health services and external debt repayments. The data were secondary in nature and covered a broad sample of countries classified by income level. No primary data collection was undertaken; instead, the analysis involved comparative evaluation of projected spending levels against historical averages from the previous decade.

The findings revealed that by the year two thousand and twenty-four, nearly half of the countries studied were expected to allocate less public funding than the average observed during the twenty-tens. A key factor driving this trend was the sharp increase in external debt servicing costs, influenced by rising global interest rates and commodity prices. These financial constraints posed a significant risk to public health systems at a time when increased investment was most urgently required.